U.S. Reins in Israel as Its Actions in Syria Threaten Regional Strategy - Israel News - Haaretz.com
Another cease-fire in Syria, the third in a week, went into effect on Saturday, between the Druze and Bedouin tribes, as well as between the two and the government of President Ahmad al-Sharaa. It's possible that this time, it has a better chance of holding.
In contrast to earlier cease-fire agreements, the spiritual leaders of the Druze community are sounding more united this round. Even spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri, who up to now rejected and opposed any cease-fire or cooperation with the Syrian regime, has joined the truce.
The leadership of the Bedouin tribes – a vague term that does not clarify who these tribes are and who represents them – joined the cease-fire and announced that they would abide by its principles. But it stated that handing over their weapons depended on a similar move by the Druze.
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The conciliatory declarations by the leaders of the two rival sides are an important step toward calming tensions. However, the blood is still boiling, and the harsh consequences of the clashes will continue to fuel a desire for revenge, as battles still rage intermittently in the area.
Bedouin fighters stand in the back of a truck at an Internal Security Forces checkpoint working to prevent Bedouin fighters from advancing towards Sweida, in Walgha, Sweida province, Syria, on Friday.Credit: Khalil Ashawi/Reuters
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, since the beginning of the latest round of violence in Sweida, 718 people have been killed, 226 of whom were local residents. 80 of these were civilians, 305 were members of Syria's security forces, while 18 were from Bedouin tribes. Significant damage has been caused to property and infrastructure, some of which, such as installations for providing water and electricity, were rendered inoperable.
In a speech the president gave on Thursday, Al-Sharaa committed to investigating the incidents and prosecuting anyone who broke the law, "regardless of which community he belongs to." But Syria's citizens are used to such promises, which proved to be empty after the massacre of Alawites and the June attack on the Mar Elias Church in Damascus, in which 25 people were killed.
All that remains now is to wait and see how the cease-fire agreement between the Druze and the Bedouin is implemented, and how al-Sharaa controls the authority given to his forces to maintain security in this volatile region, while coordinating the deployment and operation of his forces with Druze leaders.
The move that brought about the turning point was the cease-fire between Israel and Syria, achieved under American pressure following Israeli airstrikes on government buildings, including the Syrian army's general staff building and targets close to the presidential palace in Damascus.
The valid immediate concern was that the intercommunal clashes, which are far from rare in the region's history, would develop into an all-out war between Israel and the al-Sharaa regime, with a parallel civil war breaking out and becoming uncontrollable.
Such a development is the last thing the Trump administration needs, after devoting recent weeks to a vigorous attempt to shape a plan for controlling Syria, which would enable President Donald Trump to withdraw American forces from Syria and free the United States from a region that, to him, has become unnecessary.
Trump may be able to accept Israel's instinctive reaction as it set out to defend the Jewish state's "Druze brethren," even though some of the Druze community's own leaders in Damascus did not invite an Israeli response, and even opposed it. But Washington didn't really understand why Israel decided to attack Syrian forces, which had started to move toward Sweida in order to impose order, and certainly not why Israel attacked regime institutions.
The "mild" response of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to the latter attack in a press conference can attest to the fury elicited by this attack. "These are historic rivalries between different groups in the southwest of Syria," he said. "It led to an unfortunate situation and a misunderstanding, it looks like, between the Israeli side and the Syrian side."
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday.Credit: Umit Bektas/Reuters
The elastic term "misunderstanding" used by Rubio in describing events did not well conceal the turmoil caused by Israel's airstrike. It appears that more than a "misunderstanding" between Israel and Syria, it was a misunderstanding of the U.S. position.
When Rubio said at that press conference that he had talked to the "relevant sides," he had already heard from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan what he thought about Israel's attack, which endangers the military coordination between Turkey and Israel. He had also received a report that Jordan was concentrating forces on its border with Syria in order to prevent the incidents from sliding into its own territory.
A potential outbreak of a civil war, which could undermine the regime of al-Sharaa, who is a protégé of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and the U.S., was apparently not taken into consideration by Israel, which saw the sectarian war as an opportunity to demarcate another border between itself and Syria.
Earlier last week, Israel announced that its attack on Syrian forces was intended to prevent "hostile forces" from approaching its border. "The presence of such forces in southern Syria could constitute a threat against Israel," said the Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson. "The IDF will not allow the presence of a military threat in southern Syria and will act against such a threat."
Cars drive along a road at an Internal Security Forces checkpoint working to prevent Bedouin fighters from advancing towards Sweida, following renewed fighting between Bedouin fighters and Druze gunmen, despite an announced truce, in Walgha, Sweida province, Syria on Saturday.Credit: Khalil Ashawi/Reuters
Within a short time, however, the explanation changed. In its stead came a commitment to defend the Druze, supported by pressure coming from Druze leaders in Israel, who encouraged the breaching of the border fence on the Golan Heights and the rush of hundreds of Israeli Druze into Syrian territory. Israel was not prepared for this either, and the most fenced-in country in the Middle East found itself, again, with an uncontrolled breached border.
On the day of Israel's assault, President Trump was hosting the leader of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed Bin Zayed, another patron of al-Sharaa, who has already signed an agreement worth $800 million with Syria's leader, money intended for the rebuilding and development of Syria's ports. Bin Zayed also committed to investing one trillion dollars in the United States.
Israel should have understood that an attack on the al-Sharaa regime is a provocation to the wide security cordon enveloping the Syrian leader, one that includes leading Arab countries, Turkey, the U.S. and European states. These countries have fully recognized al-Sharaa's regime and have removed the sanctions on Syria. They view him, with all their reservations and limitations, as a leader holding the best chances of stabilizing Syria and promoting American strategy.
The aim of this strategy is, among other things, to offload the responsibility of fighting ISIS, as well as the safety of the Kurds in Syria, onto Turkey. This last clause requires reaching an agreement between the Kurds and al-Sharaa, with Kurdish eyes closely examining how the Syrian president is managing the crisis with the Druze community.
An Internal Security Forces officer stands guard at an Internal Security Forces checkpoint working to prevent Bedouin fighters from advancing towards Sweida, in Walgha, Sweida province, Syria on Saturday.Credit: Khalil Ashawi/Reuters
Two key questions in this context are whether the Druze militias, divided among themselves, will agree to integrate into the Syrian army and in which manner, as well as what will be the scope of the local autonomy granted by al-Sharaa to the Druze district.
The U.S. president's envoy, Tom Barrack, is exerting heavy pressure on the Kurds so that they complete and implement the agreement they signed with al-Sharaa in March.He realized immediately that the fighting in Sweida could foil these efforts, and all this was due to Israel.
Under similar American pressure, Israel itself had started to change its attitude toward al-Sharaa before the latest incidents. Its representatives have held a few direct meetings with senior Syrian regime officials. The groundwork for security coordination between the two countries still remains.
Until last week's events, there was still widespread speculation about whether al-Sharaa would meet with Benjamin Netanyahu during the UN General Assembly meeting in New York in September. But lo and behold, al-Sharaa returned in a flash to being an Islamist jihadist, a leader of murderous gangs who threatens not only the lives of Syrian Druze but the security of Israel as well.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, right, and Syria's interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, second left, stand on the balcony during their meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan, last week.Credit: AP
Given this turnaround, the strongest power in the world, which wishes to draw a new map for the Middle East, suddenly found itself dragged into a "banal" sectarian conflict in which it has to consider Israel's sentiments toward the Druze and give these priority over its regional policies.
The American reaction was swift, determined and well-honed. Israel was demanded to "allow" Syrian forces to reach the Sweida district in order to restore order, after it had previously clarified that it would prevent them from doing so. Israel signed a cease-fire agreement with the Syrian regime, and it appears that it got Sheikh Muafak Tarif, the religious leader of the Israeli Druze community, involved in the effort to convince his friend Hikmat al-Hijri to lay down his arms and support the agreement.
As it turns out, just as Israel wished to dictate the allowed boundaries of action to al-Sharaa in Syria, so did the U.S. delineate the limits for Israel. Israel will, for now, continue to control territory it seized in Syria, but involvement in sectarian politics in Syria, which would endanger American interests, is a red line not to be crossed.